More thoughts on geese photos ...

I asked Dr. Michael Samuel, a professor at the University of Wisconsin who has worked on wildlife disease issues for over twenty years including waterfowl mortalities, to comment on the photos (some of his publications are listed here). Specifically, I wrote:

"
The internet is ablaze with rumours about "thousands" of geese dying
of H5N1 avian influenza in western China. Part of the fire is being
fueled by these pictures, which many claim are of thousands of dead
geese (maybe bar-headed):

http://www.peacehall.com/news/gb/china/2005/06/200506032331.shtml

They point to the fact that there are no geese in the air as further
evidence of a mass mortality.

What do you think? At a goose colony, would you expect loads in the
air? Do these look like dead geese to you? Sorry, I realize the
resolution is poor, but any thoughts you had would be great.

Thanks,

Damien"

His reply was this:

"
Damien -

I agree these pictures are not very good. However, it doesn't look to me like these birds are dead. I see some birds standing in the pictures and many that appear to either be preening or with heads on top of their backs, still others appear to have their heads tucked into their feathers. If many of these birds were dead I would expect them to be laying on the sides or with their heads and necks on the ground. Also I would not expect to see them so regularly spaced as appers in this pictures - looks like a nesting colony to me. I have attached a picture of dead snow geese from Banks Island for your comparison (sorry - I can't get the photo posted - will do so as soon as I can - d.).

I've not yet heard any reports about mass mortality in waterfowl from AI, and this would certainly be typical since we believe that waterfowl are not generally affected by AI.

Mike"

Dr. Samuel followed up with this comment:

"Damien -

Just a couple of followup notes. Your report indicates only a mortality of about 500 birds, it is certainly possible that there could be dead birds scattered in these pictures, but not easily seen given the poor quality.

A second thing to consider is some other disease, one would be avian cholera. Although cholera is not typically reported in Asia it was found in Baikal Teal in the past few years. It would certainly be one of the things I might consider.

Related to the snow goose mortality you should consier that these carcasses were probably a 1-2 months post outbreak. Our best estimates were that aoubt 20,000 - 30,000 birds were killed in this outbreak.

Hope some of this helps.

Mike"