New bird flu paper in EID: Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1, Thailand, 2004

There's a new paper on the avian influenza epizootic in Thailand in Emerging Infectious Diseases.  

Interesting quote in the discussion:

"High numbers of HPAI detections coincided with low temperatures in Thailand from October to February, when wild birds from central and northern Asia migrate into Thailand (7). Therefore, seasonal conditions and bird migration might have contributed to the introduction of HPAI virus. Furthermore, the lower temperature supports survival of the virus in the environment and facilitates transmission (33). In addition, several festivals, which are associated with raising, selling, and transporting poultry, occurred around the end of the year. Illegal transportation and cockfighting may have worsened the HPAI situation."

I suspect the latter explanation (festivals and poultry movement) is probably more important than the former (arrival of migratory birds), given that H5N1 wasn't isolated from wild birds consistently till this year.

Damien